Highest temperature in Shenzhen on June 1?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Shenzhen's early June weather will determine whether the highest temperature recorded at Bao'an International Airport on 1 June 2026 falls into one of several defined ranges. The settlement hinges on a single daily maximum reading from Wunderground's historical data feed, making this a straightforward meteorological fact rather than a forecast consensus.

June marks the onset of Shenzhen's pre-monsoon season, when daily highs typically range between 28–32°C, though extremes occasionally push toward 35°C during heat waves. Historical data from the past five years shows that early June temperatures at Bao'an rarely exceed 33°C; the 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either a cooler-than-average day or uncertainty about which temperature bracket will ultimately settle. Comparable markets on Chinese coastal cities in similar seasons have seen modest trading depth, with most liquidity concentrated around the 28–31°C ranges where climatological norms cluster.

Traders monitoring this market should track mid-May weather pattern forecasts and any anomalous heat systems developing across southern China in late May. The China Meteorological Administration publishes monthly outlooks that often signal whether June will trend warmer or cooler than the 30-year average. Settlement occurs at 12:00 UTC on 1 June, giving traders a full day to observe actual conditions before the window closes. Deposit friction via Klarna or SEPA transfers may influence participation depth; markets with lower barriers to entry typically see tighter spreads as more casual traders can enter positions without navigating traditional banking delays.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Klarna UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Klarna UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Klarna UK?

Zero. Polymarket Klarna UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.