Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 24?

Platform comparison

Market context

The event is whether Shenzhen Bao’an International Airport records a daily high temperature in a specified Celsius range on 24 July 2026, using Wunderground’s airport station history page as the settlement source. Shenzhen’s July climate is typically hot and humid, with average daytime highs around 32°C and frequent rain, so the market is effectively asking whether the airport posts a reading materially above or below a very warm seasonal norm.[1][2]

That backdrop matters because the current 0% YES price implies the book is assigning almost no chance to a qualifying high, which is hard to reconcile with the city’s normal July pattern unless the range is unusually elevated. Comparable summer temperature markets in southern China are often driven by whether showers and typhoon-adjacent cloud cover cap the afternoon maximum, rather than by overnight conditions; in practice, the final print usually comes down to a short midday window and the exact station reading.[1][2]

For traders, the main catalysts are the day’s weather sequence, airport observation timing, and any late shift in coastal rainfall or storm track that could suppress the high after an early warm start. Liquidity is typically most sensitive when funding rails are easy: deposits that clear quickly, low-fee on-ramping, and clean withdrawal options such as SEPA or USDC tend to support tighter books, while extra friction around card-like flows such as Klarna can slow fresh capital and leave prices stale even when the forecast changes.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 24? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?

Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.

Can I deposit with a credit card?

Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.

What's the minimum deposit?

10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).

How do withdrawals work?

Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).

Are payment details protected?

Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.