Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 26?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Shanghai's weather on 26 May 2026 will be measured against historical May temperatures at Pudong International Airport, where daily highs typically range between 28–32°C during late spring. The settlement hinges on the single highest temperature recorded across all observation times that day, sourced from Wunderground's historical database and finalised by the 12:00 UTC deadline.

May temperatures in Shanghai show consistent patterns across years: the city rarely exceeds 35°C before June, though heat waves can push readings into the low-to-mid 30s. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or minimal liquidity depth—a common signal when deposit friction or withdrawal delays deter participation. On Polymarket-Klarna, SEPA transfers and Klarna's instant settlement rails have historically driven book depth in weather markets by reducing the friction between conviction and capital deployment; markets with clearer on-ramp pathways tend to attract more granular probability distributions.

Traders monitoring this market should track China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in early May, which typically provide 10–14 day outlooks. El Niño or La Niña conditions heading into northern hemisphere summer can shift seasonal temperature expectations, though May itself remains relatively stable. The absence of major weather announcements or typhoon alerts in the settlement window means the market's probability distribution will likely tighten only as May approaches, when short-range models become actionable. Current low liquidity may reflect genuine uncertainty rather than mispricing.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Klarna UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.