Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 25?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Shanghai's daily maximum temperature on 25 May 2026 will be recorded at Pudong International Airport and settled against historical data from Wunderground. Late May falls within Shanghai's late spring period, when daytime highs typically range between 28–32°C, though anomalous heat events can push readings several degrees higher. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, meaning traders must account for the full calendar day's peak before final resolution.

Historical May temperatures at Pudong show considerable year-to-year variance. In 2023, the 25th recorded a high of 29°C; in 2022, it reached 31°C. Extreme outliers exist—May heat waves have occasionally driven daily maxima above 35°C—but such events remain statistically infrequent. The 0% crowd probability suggests either deep uncertainty about the specific range brackets offered or minimal liquidity depth at current odds. Deposit friction via Klarna or SEPA rails may suppress early participation; traders awaiting clearer price discovery often delay entry until book depth improves and withdrawal certainty solidifies.

Weather forecasts beyond ten days carry substantial uncertainty. Late-May patterns depend on subtropical high-pressure systems and monsoon onset timing, neither fully predictable this far ahead. Meteorological updates from China's National Meteorological Centre typically refine forecasts five to seven days prior; traders should monitor those releases for shifts in confidence intervals. Liquidity tends to concentrate as settlement approaches and payment rails (USDC on-chain, Klarna instant settlement) reduce friction, allowing larger positions to clear without slippage.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 25? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.