Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 27?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the peak temperature recorded at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on 27 June 2026, a date that sits squarely within the city’s hot season. Historical data shows daily highs in late June typically climb from 77°F to 83°F, rarely dipping below 69°F or exceeding 92°F[2]. Summer conditions regularly push temperatures above 30°C, with sunny days reaching 35°C[5]. Given that the current crowd-implied probability for a specific temperature range is 0% YES, traders should interpret this as a market-wide consensus that the forecasted range is either implausible or misaligned with the expected 80–86°F high[3]. The 0% signal likely reflects a lack of liquidity or a pricing error rather than a genuine meteorological impossibility, since temperatures in this window are statistically normal for the period[6].

Key catalysts include the official 2026 June forecast from AccuWeather, which projects daily highs between 80°F and 86°F, and the onset of the hot season beginning 17 June[3][6]. Traders must monitor real-time updates from Wunderground, the designated resolution source, for any sudden shifts in humidity or wind patterns that could alter the peak reading[1]. A recent BBC Weather report for Shanghai Hongqiao notes sunny conditions with a high of 29°C and 84% humidity, suggesting similar patterns may hold at Pudong[1]. The market’s traction is directly tied to funding flows: as depositors use Klarna or SEPA rails to enter positions, book depth expands, allowing more accurate pricing. Withdrawal rails like USDC determine how quickly capital exits, influencing volatility. Without fresh on-ramp activity, the 0% probability may persist due to thin liquidity rather than factual certainty.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Klarna UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Klarna UK?

Zero. Polymarket Klarna UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Klarna UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.