Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 23?

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Market context

The real-world event determining this market is the highest temperature recorded at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on 23 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Current weather data indicates heavy rain and a gentle breeze for Hongqiao, with a high of 24°C, while Pudong shows light showers and temperatures hovering around 23°C to 25°C early this morning[1][2]. Given the persistent cloud cover and precipitation typical of Shanghai’s June rainy season, the 0% crowd-implied probability for higher temperature ranges aligns with the immediate atmospheric conditions that suppress thermal peaks.

Historical climate patterns for Pudong in June show daily highs typically ranging from 25°C to 34°C, rarely exceeding 35°C unless under intense, clear-sky solar heating[3][5]. The current wet conditions mirror comparable years where precipitation prevented temperatures from climbing into the upper ranges, making the 0% probability for higher brackets a statistically sound reading of the historical baseline. Traders should monitor the Shanghai Meteorological Centre’s orange alert status and any scheduled shifts in the monsoon front, as recent reports confirm these weather systems are actively moderating temperature extremes across the region[6].

Catalysts to watch include the timing of the next rain band and official updates from the National Weather Service regarding wind direction changes, which could clear skies and allow rapid heating[2]. While the settlement window ends on 23 June 2026, the funding flows driving book depth on this market are closely tied to payment friction on on-ramps like Klarna and SEPA; traders depositing via these rails often adjust positions based on the latest Wunderground hourly data, which currently shows no indication of a sudden heat spike[4][7]. The market’s traction remains dependent on these real-time weather dependencies rather than speculative forecasts.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Klarna UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Klarna UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Klarna UK?

Zero. Polymarket Klarna UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Klarna UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.