Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 21?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Shanghai’s afternoon high at Pudong airport is the key number here: this market resolves to the hottest temperature recorded at Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station on 21 June, not the city-wide peak. With the market already showing 0% YES, the book is effectively saying an extreme reading is very unlikely, and the relevant question is whether the day clears the lower Celsius bands rather than producing a genuinely hot outlier.

June climatology at Pudong supports that cautious pricing. WeatherSpark puts average June highs at Shanghai Pudong in a narrow summer range, rising from about 77°F to 83°F, with temperatures rarely below 69°F or above 92°F, while Shanghai airport climate guides note that summer highs often exceed 30°C and can reach 35°C in sunnier spells.[2][4] For a trader, that means a typical warm June day does not automatically threaten the upper settlement bins; the market mainly reacts if the airport gets sustained sun and weak cloud cover rather than a thunderstorm-dominated day.

The immediate catalysts are the same ones that move short-dated weather books: updated airport forecasts, any shift in cloud cover or thunderstorm timing, and whether the daytime heating window is truncated by rain. Meteoblue’s current outlook for Pudong points to mostly cloudy conditions in the morning, a mix of sun and cloud with possible local thunderstorms later, and a forecast high of 81°F, which is comfortably below the more extreme historical summer readings.[1] For market depth, the funding side matters: low-friction deposits such as Klarna or SEPA tend to pull in smaller, faster entrants, while USDC rails can support quicker cross-border flow, so changes in on-ramp convenience can matter almost as much as the weather when a book is thin.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Klarna UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Klarna UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Klarna UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Klarna UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.