Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 20?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Shanghai Pudong International Airport is the settlement point, so the key question is whether the day’s *highest* reading reaches the upper 20s or low 30s Celsius before noon UTC. Current weather models for the airport point to a sunny day with temperatures as high as 65°F, which is about 18°C, while nearby Shanghai airport forecasts show only a modest high around 31°C and light rain rather than heat extremes.[1][2]

The 0% crowd-implied probability is consistent with how these markets often price in a hard cap once the relevant observation window is nearly over and the realised high looks locked in. June at Pudong is normally a warm month, with average highs rising into the low 30s °C only on the hottest days, but the forecast spread matters more than climatology here because the market resolves on the single highest reading logged at the station, not the city-wide daytime feel.[3][7]

For traders, the main catalysts are the live station observations on Wunderground, the timing of any midday clearing or shower band, and whether forecast revisions move the expected peak by even a degree or two before the settlement cut-off.[4] The funding side also matters: markets with cheap, low-friction deposits and quick withdrawals tend to attract more flow, so rails such as Klarna, SEPA and USDC can affect book depth and how aggressively the market reprices into the close. Current airport temperature feeds from AccuWeather and meteoblue both point to warm but not extreme conditions, which supports a tight range unless the local cloud and wind pattern shifts materially.[1][5]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 20? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Klarna UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Klarna UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Klarna UK?

Zero. Polymarket Klarna UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.