Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 13?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Shanghai's weather in mid-June typically sits in the early monsoon season, with daily highs ranging between 28–32°C as the city transitions into summer. The settlement window closes at midday on 13 June 2026, meaning only temperatures recorded up to that point will count toward resolution. Historical data from Pudong International Airport—Shanghai's primary weather station—shows June highs rarely exceed 35°C, though humidity levels often make conditions feel more oppressive than raw temperature suggests.

The 0% crowd probability reflects genuine uncertainty rather than confidence that temperatures will remain moderate. June represents a transitional month before peak summer heat arrives; whilst heatwaves do occur, they're neither guaranteed nor predictable months in advance. Comparable years show considerable variance: some Junes see sustained heat above 32°C, whilst others remain closer to 28°C. Traders depositing via Klarna or SEPA transfers should note that book depth on temperature markets typically builds as the settlement date approaches, when meteorological forecasts become more reliable and attract larger position sizes.

Weather forecasts beyond two weeks carry substantial margin of error, making early positioning risky. The China Meteorological Administration publishes monthly outlooks in early June, which could shift trader positioning if they signal an unusually warm pattern. Conversely, any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific during early June could suppress temperatures significantly. Withdrawal flexibility matters here—markets settling on specific dates reward traders who can exit quickly once forecasts crystallise, making platforms offering same-day USDC or SEPA withdrawals operationally advantageous for this category.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Klarna UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Klarna UK?

Zero. Polymarket Klarna UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.