Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 23?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai’s highest temperature on 23 July will be set by the reading at Pudong International Airport, so the key question is whether the day reaches the mid-30s Celsius rather than simply feeling hot city-wide. July normals for Shanghai are already warm, with typical daily highs around 31°C, and the market is currently leaning to 36°C over 35°C, which fits a summer pattern where a small shift in cloud cover, sea breeze, or thunderstorm timing can move the outcome by a degree or two.[1][2]

The 0% implied probability on YES is notable because the contract resolves to a specific temperature range, and the book is still being shaped by payment and on-ramp friction as much as by weather expectations. Where deposits are easiest and cheapest, markets tend to attract more hedge and discretionary flow, which can deepen the top of book; where traders face card or bank-transfer delays, spreads can stay wider and price discovery can lag the underlying forecast. For a fast-settling weather event like this, that matters because any late liquidity arriving via SEPA, Klarna-linked on-ramps, or USDC can still reprice the market sharply before noon UTC.

Traders will mainly watch the local forecast path for Shanghai Pudong, especially whether humidity, cloud build-up, or afternoon convection caps the maximum below the high-30s range. For a weather market with a same-day resolution window, the most relevant catalysts are not policy announcements but forecast updates, airport station conditions, and any sign of a thunderstorm or sea-breeze change that can suppress the day’s peak. If the morning starts clear and still, the market is more likely to migrate towards the warmer end of the listed bands; if clouds build early, the mid-30s outcomes become less likely.[1][2]

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 23? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?

You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.

What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?

Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.

Which payment methods are supported?

Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.

How do withdrawals work?

Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).

Are payment details protected?

Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.