Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai faces its peak summer heat today, with the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station recording a maximum of 36°C as thunderstorms roll through the region[1]. The market currently implies a 0% probability for the YES outcome, suggesting the crowd expects the temperature to fall outside the specific range offered, despite the scorching conditions typical of mid-July in the city.

Historical data for Shanghai in July consistently shows highs between 33°C and 37°C, making a 36°C peak a frequent occurrence rather than an anomaly[1]. Comparable cases from previous years indicate that when thunderstorms interrupt the heat, temperatures often dip slightly but rarely drop below 30°C, reinforcing the likelihood that the day’s peak will align with the upper end of the seasonal average rather than the lower bounds implied by the current zero probability.

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground, the official resolution source, for the final confirmed peak temperature before the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC[1]. While no specific weather announcements are pending, the immediate dependency is the persistence of the current thunderstorm activity, which could suppress the maximum temperature if it continues through the afternoon. Funding flows into this book will likely depend on how quickly Klarna and SEPA on-ramps process deposits, as friction in these rails often delays capital entry during volatile weather events.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 16? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?

You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.

What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?

Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.

Which payment methods are supported?

Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.

How fast is SEPA deposit?

SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.

What's the minimum deposit?

10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).