Highest temperature in Seoul on May 25?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Seoul's weather on 25 May 2026 will be measured at Incheon International Airport, the primary meteorological station for the region. Late May sits in Seoul's late spring period, typically characterised by warming temperatures as the city transitions toward summer. The highest daily temperature recorded at this station will determine the settlement outcome, with Wunderground's historical archive serving as the official resolution source.

Historical May temperatures at Incheon show considerable year-to-year variation. Over the past two decades, maximum temperatures on 25 May have ranged from approximately 20°C to 28°C, reflecting Seoul's susceptibility to both cool maritime air masses and early-season heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the specific temperature bands available in this market's structure, or the current odds do not reflect the statistical likelihood of typical late-May conditions. Comparable spring weather markets on prediction platforms typically see meaningful trading activity only when resolution approaches and weather forecasts solidify.

Traders monitoring this market should track the Korea Meteorological Administration's extended forecasts from mid-May onwards, as these will provide the most reliable 10-day outlooks. El Niño or La Niña conditions persisting into spring 2026 could influence whether Seoul experiences above or below-average temperatures. Deposit and withdrawal infrastructure—particularly SEPA transfers and Klarna payment rails available on polymarket-klarna.co.uk—will determine liquidity depth as the settlement window approaches. Markets with shallow books often see wider spreads until capital flows tighten around resolution.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on May 25? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.