Highest temperature in Seoul on May 23?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Seoul's weather on 23 May 2026 will be measured at Incheon International Airport's official station, where the highest daily temperature will fall into one of several discrete ranges. Late May in the Seoul metropolitan area typically sits in the warm-to-hot band, with historical highs around 28–32°C depending on prevailing air masses and moisture patterns. The settlement hinges on Wunderground's historical weather database for that specific station and date, with the window closing at noon UTC.

The 0% crowd probability reflects genuine uncertainty rather than consensus bearishness. May temperatures in Seoul have shown considerable year-to-year variance; the 2015 high reached 31.5°C whilst 2019 recorded 24.8°C for the same date. Spring weather systems—including late-season cold fronts or early monsoon moisture—can shift outcomes by several degrees. Comparable late-May markets in East Asia have typically drawn modest liquidity until within 7–10 days of settlement, when forecast models stabilise and traders gain confidence in range placement.

Deposit friction remains the primary constraint on book depth here. Traders using Klarna or SEPA transfers face 1–3 day settlement windows; USDC on-ramps bypass this but require crypto familiarity. The market's traction will accelerate once mid-May weather forecasts solidify—the Korea Meteorological Administration publishes extended outlooks roughly two weeks ahead—and as traders seeking weather-hedging exposure or directional bets on seasonal patterns begin positioning. Payment rail accessibility directly correlates with participation in lower-liquidity regional weather markets.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.