Highest temperature in Seoul on June 26?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 26 June 2026, the Incheon International Airport Station will record its highest temperature in degrees Celsius, a real-world event that directly determines the outcome of this prediction market. Historical data for Seoul in June shows daily highs typically ranging from 77°F to 81°F (25°C to 27°C), rarely exceeding 87°F (31°C) [1][2]. Recent years have seen record-breaking heat, with 59 out of 97 South Korean weather stations recording their highest June averages between late Saturday and Monday [4]. The all-time national heat record reached 41.0°C in Hongcheon, though Seoul’s June averages remain more moderate, usually hovering around 26°C [3][2].

Traders should monitor upcoming meteorological announcements and seasonal climate schedules, as sudden shifts in humidity or cloud cover can alter temperature trajectories. The Korea Herald reported that June heat has shattered records across the country, with Mokpo reaching 28.1°C in recent days, suggesting a trend of intensifying warmth [4][8]. For this market, the current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES indicates minimal expectation of extreme heat, yet funding flows from payment on-ramps like Klarna and SEPA are driving book depth, reflecting investor confidence in these historical patterns. Withdrawal rails such as USDC remain critical for liquidity, tying market traction to the ease of depositing and exiting positions.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on June 26? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Klarna UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Klarna UK?

Zero. Polymarket Klarna UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Klarna UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.