Highest temperature in Seoul on June 25?

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Market context

The underlying event is the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 25 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius and sourced from Wunderground. While the crowd-implied probability for a "YES" outcome on the current market page reads 0%, the frontrunner outcome is actually 26°C at 37%, with 27°C trailing at 33%, indicating active pricing around the mid-20s range rather than a null result [1].

Historical patterns in Seoul during June show daily highs typically rising from 77°F to 81°F (25°C to 27°C), rarely dipping below 68°F or exceeding 87°F [2]. Recent years have seen intensified heat, with South Korea recording its hottest June average since 1973 at 22.9°C in 2025, and Seoul hitting 35.8°C in August 2025 during a record-breaking summer [7][8]. The all-time national heat record reached 41.0°C in Hongcheon, suggesting that while extreme outliers exist, the mid-20s remain the statistically probable band for Incheon on this date [3].

Traders should monitor real-time weather updates from Wunderground as the settlement window approaches, particularly any sudden shifts in solar radiation or cloud cover that could push temperatures above 27°C [1]. The market’s book depth is directly tied to funding flows from payment rails like Klarna and SEPA; as deposit friction decreases and withdrawal fees drop, liquidity increases, sharpening price discovery around the 26–27°C range. No recent news announcements have altered the forecast, but the dependency on Wunderground’s hourly data means traders must watch for any latency or gaps in the station’s reporting before 12:00 UTC on 25 June.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Klarna UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Klarna UK?

Zero. Polymarket Klarna UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.