Highest temperature in Seoul on June 24?

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Market context

On 24 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport will determine the outcome of a prediction market focused on Seoul’s peak heat. Historical data shows that late June in South Korea typically sees daytime highs between 19°C and 28°C, with humidity rising as the monsoon season begins. Early June is often milder, but by the end of the month, temperatures can climb noticeably, especially in urban areas like Seoul. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES suggests traders believe the temperature will not exceed a specific threshold, likely aligned with the upper end of the typical range.

Comparable cases from recent years indicate that late June highs in Seoul rarely breach 30°C, though isolated heatwaves have pushed readings higher. For instance, the warmest day in June 2026 so far reached 29.3°C on 17 June, according to climate data sources[8]. Traders should monitor upcoming weather forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration, which may signal sudden shifts in temperature or humidity ahead of the settlement date[5]. Additionally, any announcements regarding regional heat advisories or changes in monsoon timing could act as catalysts, influencing book depth and funding flows tied to deposit and withdrawal rails such as SEPA and USDC. Market traction remains closely linked to these financial flows, as liquidity depends on timely deposits and low-fee access through platforms like Klarna.

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Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on June 24? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Klarna UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Klarna UK?

Zero. Polymarket Klarna UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Klarna UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.