Highest temperature in Seoul on June 17?

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Market context

Seoul's weather on 17 June 2026 will be measured at Incheon International Airport Station, where the highest temperature recorded across the entire day determines the settlement range. The measurement uses Wunderground's historical weather database, which logs hourly readings throughout the day. This particular date falls in South Korea's early monsoon season, when daytime highs typically range between 24–28°C, though heat waves can push readings several degrees higher.

Historical June temperatures at Incheon show considerable year-to-year variation. Between 2015 and 2024, the highest daily temperatures in mid-June ranged from 22°C to 31°C, with an average around 26–27°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders currently expect the temperature to fall outside the highest available range bracket, or uncertainty about which specific range will resolve. This positioning reflects either conservative expectations or liquidity constraints limiting order placement—common friction points when traders face deposit delays via Klarna or SEPA transfers, or when withdrawal rails create hesitation about capital commitment.

Traders monitoring this market should track the Korean Meteorological Administration's seasonal forecasts and any heat advisories issued in May or early June 2026. El Niño or La Niña patterns influence North Pacific weather systems that affect Korean peninsula temperatures. Real-time booking depth depends partly on payment onboarding speed; traders able to deposit via USDC or faster SEPA rails typically enter positions earlier, whilst Klarna's staggered settlement can delay capital availability during volatile prediction windows.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Klarna UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Klarna UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.