Highest temperature in Seoul on June 14?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Seoul's peak temperature on 14 June 2026 will be recorded at Incheon International Airport's weather station and settled against historical data from Wunderground. Early-June conditions in the Seoul metropolitan area typically see mean highs around 25–27°C, though variability is substantial depending on monsoon onset timing and upper-air patterns. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either absent from this market or treating it as a placeholder pending liquidity injection—common for weather markets with settlement dates beyond six months.

Historical June temperatures at Incheon show a 30-year range between 16°C and 34°C for daily highs, with extremes driven by early-season heat waves or delayed spring conditions. The current zero-probability reading reflects thin order books rather than genuine certainty; weather markets typically require active deposit flows and low withdrawal friction to attract volume. On payment-integrated platforms, traders moving capital via Klarna, SEPA transfers, or USDC stablecoins often cluster around markets with near-term resolution and established price discovery—longer-dated weather contracts depend on sufficient on-ramp adoption to build depth.

Watch for booking activity in May 2026 as the settlement window approaches. Korean Meteorological Administration seasonal forecasts, typically released in April, will signal monsoon timing and early-summer pressure patterns. Traders with access to low-fee withdrawal rails and instant deposit confirmation will likely enter positions once comparable June markets show traction, creating a feedback loop that determines whether this contract achieves meaningful liquidity before resolution.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Klarna UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Klarna UK?

Zero. Polymarket Klarna UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.