Highest temperature in Seoul on June 13?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Seoul's weather on 13 June 2026 will be measured at Incheon International Airport, the official settlement station. Mid-June falls within South Korea's early monsoon season, when temperatures typically range between 24–28°C, though heat waves can push readings above 30°C. The crowd currently assigns zero probability to any outcome, suggesting either insufficient liquidity or genuine uncertainty about which temperature band will resolve.

Historical June data from Incheon shows considerable year-to-year variance. In 2023, the highest temperature on 13 June reached 26.1°C; in 2022, it climbed to 29.4°C. The 2020 reading was 27.8°C. This spread reflects the volatility of early-season weather patterns before the full monsoon establishes itself. Comparable markets tracking Seoul temperatures in this period typically see meaningful trading once seasonal forecasts narrow, usually 7–10 days before settlement.

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration's extended forecasts, which update twice weekly and carry weight with regional weather traders. Any advisory for heat waves or unusual pressure systems in early June 2026 will shift implied probabilities toward higher temperature bands. Deposit friction via Klarna or SEPA transfers currently limits book depth on weather markets with settlement windows beyond six months; as June approaches, on-ramp activity typically accelerates, deepening liquidity and tightening spreads. The 0% crowd reading suggests this market awaits its first meaningful capital commitment.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Klarna UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Klarna UK?

Zero. Polymarket Klarna UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Klarna UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.