Highest temperature in Seoul on June 12?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Seoul's weather in mid-June sits at the threshold between late spring and early summer monsoon season. The Korea Meteorological Administration typically records daily highs between 24–28°C during this period, though heat waves can push readings several degrees higher. The settlement mechanism relies on Incheon International Airport's official station data, which serves as the standard reference for Seoul metropolitan weather forecasting and has consistent measurement protocols across years.

Historical June temperatures at Incheon show considerable year-to-year variance. Between 2015 and 2024, daily highs on or near 12 June ranged from 21°C to 31°C, with extreme heat events occurring roughly once per decade. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either deep uncertainty about the specific threshold bands available or minimal liquidity depth—a common pattern in weather markets where deposit friction and withdrawal rails (SEPA transfers, Klarna settlements, USDC on-chain) concentrate activity in higher-volume contracts. Book depth typically expands as settlement approaches and traders can verify historical data against live forecasts.

The relevant catalyst window opens in early June 2026 when seasonal weather models gain predictive power. The Korean Meteorological Administration publishes extended forecasts ten days ahead, and any announced heat advisory or tropical system track would shift positioning. Traders monitoring this contract should watch for monsoon onset timing—early arrival typically suppresses June peaks—and cross-reference Incheon station data against Seoul city centre readings, which often run 1–2°C warmer due to urban heat effects but do not determine settlement.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on June 12? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Klarna UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Klarna UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Klarna UK?

Zero. Polymarket Klarna UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.