Highest temperature in Seoul on June 11?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Seoul's weather on 11 June 2026 will be measured at Incheon International Airport Station, the official reference point for the city's temperature records. Early summer in the Korean peninsula typically brings warm, humid conditions as the East Asian monsoon system begins to influence the region, with June averages around 20–25°C, though daily highs frequently exceed 28°C depending on pressure systems and cloud cover.

Historical June temperature data from Incheon shows considerable year-to-year variation. The airport station has recorded June highs ranging from 27°C in cooler years to 34°C during heat waves driven by Tibetan anticyclones. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or minimal trading activity on this particular date marker. Comparable early-summer Seoul forecasts typically see modest liquidity until late May, when seasonal patterns become clearer and traders with access to meteorological models begin positioning ahead of settlement.

The key catalyst is the North Pacific High pressure system's positioning in early June 2026, which determines whether warm continental air dominates or cooler maritime influences prevail. Korea Meteorological Administration updates become material from late May onwards. Traders funding positions via Klarna or SEPA transfers should account for settlement timing at 12:00 UTC on 11 June—earlier than Seoul's local evening—meaning final weather confirmation arrives before standard UK banking hours close, affecting withdrawal rail availability for same-day settlement.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Klarna UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Klarna UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Klarna UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Klarna UK?

Zero. Polymarket Klarna UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.