Highest temperature in Seoul on June 10?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Seoul's weather in early June sits at the cusp of late spring and early summer, with historical highs around 28–30°C typical for the period. The Incheon International Airport weather station, which serves as the official measurement point, records conditions across the metropolitan region. June 10th falls before the onset of the East Asian monsoon season, meaning the day's temperature will largely depend on high-pressure systems moving across the Korean peninsula and the strength of any southerly wind flows from warmer latitudes.

Historical data from the past decade shows June 10th highs ranging between 24°C and 31°C at Incheon, with most years clustering in the 27–29°C band. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders may be waiting for clearer atmospheric signals before committing capital. Current deposit friction—whether via Klarna's staggered payment rails, SEPA transfers, or USDC on-chain settlement—affects how quickly positions can scale. Markets with shallow liquidity often see probability anchors shift sharply once funding flows ease, particularly when traders can deposit without multi-day settlement delays.

The Korea Meteorological Administration publishes 10-day forecasts weekly, with the next meaningful update arriving in late May 2026. Traders should monitor whether high-pressure ridges strengthen over the peninsula or if early monsoon moisture begins penetrating northward. Any shift in the ensemble forecast toward cooler or warmer scenarios will likely trigger repositioning, especially among traders whose deposit methods allow rapid rebalancing. Book depth typically follows funding availability rather than meteorological certainty alone.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on June 10? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Klarna UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Klarna UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Klarna UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.