Highest temperature in Seoul on June 1?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Seoul's early June weather sits at a transitional point between spring and the onset of the East Asian monsoon season. The highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 1 June will determine settlement, with historical data from Wunderground serving as the authoritative source. June typically sees Seoul shift into warmer, more humid conditions, though individual daily highs vary considerably depending on whether monsoon systems have begun their seasonal advance.

Historical June 1st maxima at Incheon range between 24°C and 29°C across recent decades, reflecting the variability of early-summer weather patterns in the region. Years with established high-pressure systems overhead tend toward the upper end of this range, whilst those influenced by early monsoon moisture or cloud cover settle lower. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain of the specific temperature bands offered or expect settlement complications, though Wunderground's historical data for this station remains consistently available and verifiable.

Traders monitoring this market should track Korean Meteorological Administration forecasts released in late May, which typically provide 10-day outlooks with reasonable accuracy for temperature ranges. Atmospheric pressure patterns over the North Pacific and the timing of monsoon onset—typically late May through early June—will be the primary drivers of whether 1 June experiences a warm, clear day or cooler, cloudier conditions. Deposit and withdrawal flexibility via Klarna, SEPA transfers, and USDC will determine how readily traders can capitalise on any shifts in probability as the settlement date approaches.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on June 1? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Klarna UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Klarna UK?

Zero. Polymarket Klarna UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Klarna UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.