Highest temperature in Seoul on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul’s late-July heat is the key reference point, but this contract settles on the highest temperature at Incheon International Airport Station, which is usually a little cooler than central Seoul because of its coastal location and exposure to sea breezes. The market is therefore not about an exact city-centre peak, but about whether a broad heatwave pushes the airport station into the upper 30s Celsius. Seoul has already been in an extreme run, with officials reporting 22 tropical nights in July and the capital on track for its hottest July night on record[1].

The current **0% YES** crowd price looks conservative against the regional backdrop. Reuters and Yonhap reported that South Korea set a new national heat record of **41.4°C** in Yangsan on 31 July, while Seoul itself reached **39.6°C** in a prior August heatwave and **38.3°C** in a July 2018 event[3][4][6][19]. Historical July averages for Seoul are far lower, around the high 20s, but severe episodes can lift the daily maximum several degrees above normal, so the main question is not whether it can be hot, but whether Incheon gets an exceptional inland-style spike rather than a more typical coastal peak[8][16].

Traders should watch afternoon KMA updates, cloud cover, and wind direction around the airport, because those are the immediate inputs that can cap or extend the day’s maximum. The funding side matters too: on markets like this, depth tends to follow easy deposits and withdrawals, so tighter on-ramps such as Klarna, SEPA, or USDC usually matter more than the headline theme when spreads are thin and the order book needs fresh capital. If late-day convection or a shifting sea breeze keeps temperatures down, the line can stay suppressed; if the heat dome persists through the afternoon, the tail risk is a much warmer reading than the market is pricing now.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Seoul on July 31? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?

You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.

What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?

Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.

Can I deposit with a credit card?

Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.

What's the minimum deposit?

10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).

How do withdrawals work?

Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).