Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
57% | 43% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
57% | 43% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 30°C | 57% |
| 31°C | 39% |
| 32°C | 4% |
| 33°C or higher | 2% |
| 23°C or below | 0% |
| 24°C | 0% |
| 25°C | 0% |
| 26°C | 0% |
| 27°C | 0% |
| 28°C | 0% |
| 29°C | 0% |
Market context
Seoul's summer temperatures in late July typically peak between 28 and 34 degrees Celsius, with humidity levels that regularly push the perceived heat index higher. The Korea Meteorological Administration publishes daily records for Incheon International Airport Station, the official settlement source for this market. July 28th falls within the core of the East Asian monsoon season, when thermal patterns are shaped by Pacific high-pressure systems and moisture transport from the South China Sea.
Historical data from the past decade shows Seoul has recorded maximum temperatures above 32°C on roughly 70 per cent of late-July days, with extremes reaching 35°C during particularly intense heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests either technical friction preventing traders from depositing capital to back warmer outcomes, or genuine uncertainty about whether the market's payment rails—Klarna's buy-now-pay-later settlement, SEPA transfers, or USDC on-chain deposits—will attract sufficient liquidity before the July 28th window closes. Book depth typically correlates with funding accessibility; markets with frictionless deposit options see tighter spreads and more realistic probability distributions.
Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration's extended forecast releases in mid-July, which typically arrive 10–14 days before settlement. Recent patterns from June 2024 showed Seoul recording 33–34°C peaks during comparable monsoon phases. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on July 28th, creating a hard deadline for position entry that coincides with morning temperatures in Seoul still climbing toward their daily maximum.
Methodology
This page compares Highest temperature in Seoul on July 28? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
FAQ
- How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?
- You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.
- What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?
- Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.
- Which payment methods are supported?
- Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.
- Can I deposit with a credit card?
- Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.
- What's the minimum deposit?
- 10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).
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