Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
96% | 4% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
96% | 4% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 31°C | 96% |
| 33°C or higher | 2% |
| 32°C | 1% |
| 23°C or below | 0% |
| 24°C | 0% |
| 25°C | 0% |
| 26°C | 0% |
| 27°C | 0% |
| 28°C | 0% |
| 29°C | 0% |
| 30°C | 0% |
Market context
The key question is whether Incheon International Airport Station, the market’s settlement source, posts a daily high that breaks out of the low-to-mid 30s Celsius. Local reporting for Monday says Seoul and the wider capital region are expected to see morning showers, with Seoul forecast at 26–33°C and daytime highs across nearby cities mostly capped in the mid-30s rather than far above them.[1] That sits in the familiar July range for Seoul, where highs are typically around 30°C and heavy rain is common enough to blunt extremes.[2][3]
For a yes outcome, the settlement site needs a single observed high at Incheon that lands in the relevant range on the day, and current headline forecasts do not point to an obvious spike. The crowd-implied 0% YES therefore reflects both the weather setup and a wider funding reality: these short-lived weather books often only deepen once buyers can move money in cheaply and quickly. On a payment-led venue, deposits via **Klarna**, **SEPA**, or **USDC** can matter more than the headline topic because lower on-ramp friction usually brings in more small tickets, tighter spreads, and better book depth.
The main catalysts are the morning rain band, any updated local forecast before the settlement window closes, and whether coastal or airport conditions differ from central Seoul enough to lift the airport reading above the city forecast.[1] Traders will also watch for any infrastructure or reporting changes at the Wunderground station page itself, since the market resolves off the **highest temperature recorded** there rather than a citywide average.
Methodology
This page compares Highest temperature in Seoul on July 27? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
FAQ
- How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?
- You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.
- Which payment methods are supported?
- Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.
- Can I deposit with a credit card?
- Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.
- What's the minimum deposit?
- 10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).
- How do withdrawals work?
- Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).
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