Highest temperature in Seoul on July 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul faces its peak summer heat on 21 July 2026, with the Incheon International Airport station set to record the day’s highest temperature in degrees Celsius. Historical data shows July averages in Seoul range from 21°C to 28°C, with a 43% chance of daily rain that often moderates extreme highs [1]. The current 0% YES crowd-implied probability suggests traders expect the temperature to fall outside the specific range offered, likely due to anticipated cloud cover or precipitation typical of mid-summer in the region [1].

Comparable cases from recent years show Seoul’s July highs rarely exceed 32°C unless a strong heatwave coincides with low humidity, a condition less common when rain probability is elevated. Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s 72-hour forecast for Incheon, particularly any updates on monsoon activity or heat dome formation, as these directly influence settlement outcomes. A recent forecast from Wunderground, the official resolution source, indicates no extreme heat alerts for 21 July, reinforcing the market’s lean toward lower temperatures [1].

Funding flows into this market remain thin, reflecting the low perceived risk of a record-breaking day. On-ramp friction via Klarna and SEPA may further dampen participation, as traders prioritise liquid markets with clearer catalysts. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 21 July, leaving little time for late-position adjustments once morning temperatures are logged. Depth in the book will likely depend on whether USDC withdrawals become smoother, encouraging larger speculative entries if forecast models shift unexpectedly.

Sources: 1

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Seoul on July 21? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?

Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.

Which payment methods are supported?

Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.

How fast is SEPA deposit?

SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.

Can I deposit with a credit card?

Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.

Are payment details protected?

Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.