Highest temperature in Seoul on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul is expected to face peak summer heat on 13 July 2026, with the Incheon International Airport station serving as the official benchmark for the highest daily temperature in degrees Celsius. Historical data shows July in Seoul typically sees highs between 29°C and 32°C, rarely exceeding 33°C, though extreme heatwaves have pushed temperatures above 37°C in recent years [5][6]. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES suggests traders believe the temperature will fall outside the specific range offered, likely due to the high threshold set or expectations of a cooler day despite seasonal trends.

Comparable cases include July 2018, when Seoul recorded 37.7°C—the highest early July temperature in 117 years—and 2023, when South Korea experienced its second-hottest July since 1973 with an average of 27.1°C [6][7]. These events demonstrate that while extreme heat is possible, it remains an outlier rather than a norm, supporting the market’s low probability stance. Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s daily forecasts and Wunderground’s real-time updates for the Incheon station, as sudden shifts in monsoon activity or cloud cover could alter outcomes. A recent Anadolu Ajansı report confirmed Seoul’s vulnerability to record-breaking July heat, reinforcing the need for close observation of weather bulletins ahead of settlement [6].

Funding flows into this market are closely tied to payment friction on on-ramps; seamless deposits via Klarna and low-fee SEPA transfers have driven book depth, while USDC withdrawal rails remain a key dependency for liquidity. As traders assess the likelihood of extreme heat, the ease of accessing capital through these rails directly influences position sizing and market activity.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Seoul on July 13? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?

You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.

What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?

Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.

How fast is SEPA deposit?

SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.

Can I deposit with a credit card?

Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.

How do withdrawals work?

Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).