Highest temperature in Seoul on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 10 July 2026, traders are betting on the peak Celsius temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport, the official proxy for Seoul’s summer heat. The market currently assigns a 0% probability to the “YES” outcome, implying near-certainty that the temperature will exceed the lowest range bracket, yet the frontrunner outcome is 28°C at 36%, with 29°C trailing at 24%[1]. This distribution reflects a crowd expecting a hot but not record-breaking day, despite recent anomalies.

Historical parallels frame this probability: July 2025 was South Korea’s second-hottest July since 1973, averaging 27.1°C nationwide, while Seoul hit 37.7°C in early July 2025—the highest in 117 years[5][8]. Tropical nights have also surged, with overnight temperatures above 25°C for 22 consecutive days, breaking a century-old record[2][4]. Yet, Incheon’s airport station typically records slightly lower peaks than central Seoul, and July averages there hover around 29–30°C, rarely exceeding 33°C[6].

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s daily heat advisories and any scheduled monsoon front updates, as these directly influence peak temperatures. Recent reports confirm South Korea is experiencing its highest-ever July temperatures, with Hongcheon reaching 41.0°C in June 2026[3]. The market’s book depth correlates with funding flows from Klarna and SEPA deposits; as withdrawal rails tighten, liquidity concentrates in high-probability ranges like 28–29°C, reinforcing the current frontrunner status[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Seoul on July 10? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?

Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.

How fast is SEPA deposit?

SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.

Can I deposit with a credit card?

Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.

How do withdrawals work?

Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).

Are payment details protected?

Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.