Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

San Francisco’s peak heat on 14 July 2026 will be measured in degrees Fahrenheit at the San Francisco International Airport Station, with the market now pricing a 78–79°F outcome at 93% probability. The current 0% implied probability for any “YES” outcome on alternative ranges reflects overwhelming consensus that temperatures will not breach 80°F, aligning with typical mid-July conditions in the city where marine influence often caps extremes.

Historical records show San Francisco rarely exceeds 80°F in July; the city’s average high sits near 70–72°F, with only isolated heatwaves pushing past 78°F. Comparable cases from 2022 and 2023 saw peaks of 77°F and 79°F respectively, reinforcing the market’s tight confidence in the 78–79°F band. This stability mirrors the predictable funding flows that underpin the book’s depth: traders depositing via Klarna and SEPA are locking in positions where withdrawal rails like USDC ensure rapid exit, reducing friction and sustaining liquidity.

Key catalysts include the National Weather Service’s 7-day forecast updates and any sudden shifts in Pacific high-pressure systems that could trigger inland heat advection. A recent analysis from the San Francisco Chronicle noted that while July heatwaves are uncommon, they correlate with prolonged ridging over the Great Basin, which could elevate temperatures if sustained [2]. Traders should monitor these atmospheric patterns closely, as even a minor deviation could shift settlement toward the 80–81°F range, altering payout dynamics for those using fast on-ramps.

Sources: 1

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 14? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?

You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.

What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?

Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.

Which payment methods are supported?

Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.

Can I deposit with a credit card?

Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.

Are payment details protected?

Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.