Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

San Francisco’s highest temperature on 12 July 2026 will be recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station, with resolution based on Wunderground’s daily high. The market currently assigns 0% probability to any outcome exceeding the upper bounds of typical July climatology, reflecting confidence that fog and marine influence will cap highs near the 67–71°F range. Historical data shows daily July highs average around 70°F, rarely exceeding 79°F or falling below 64°F[2]. While extreme outliers exist—such as 106°F on 1 September 2017—these are exceptional and not representative of mid-July conditions[3]. Even on 12 July 2021, the high tied a record low maximum of 57°F, underscoring the date’s variability but also its tendency toward cooler extremes[9].

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s Bay Area forecasts for shifts in marine layer strength and wind patterns, which directly influence temperature ceilings. A recent Reddit post noted San Francisco experienced its third-hottest week in over 150 years, with a 73°F high breaking a 125-year record for 29 January, though this is not indicative of July trends[7]. The key dependency is whether fog lingers into midday, as seen in typical July climatology where 72–73°F outcomes remain closely priced at 30%[1]. Funding flows into this market correlate with on-ramp friction: Klarna and SEPA deposit ease, plus USDC withdrawal rails, drive book depth. As payment rails stabilise, liquidity in temperature markets like this one expands, reflecting trader confidence in settlement reliability via Wunderground’s KSFO data[10].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 12? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?

Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.

How fast is SEPA deposit?

SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.

Can I deposit with a credit card?

Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.

How do withdrawals work?

Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).

Are payment details protected?

Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.