Highest temperature in San Francisco on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

The question is whether San Francisco International Airport reaches a particular high on 10 August, using Weather Underground’s Daily Observations rather than the broader summary figure. With the market already priced at 0% YES, the book is effectively saying traders do not see a chance of an unusually warm airport reading, which fits San Francisco’s August pattern of cool marine mornings, onshore flow and modest daytime warming.

The historical frame is straightforward: August highs in San Francisco usually sit around the upper 60s to low 70s Fahrenheit, with WeatherSpark putting daily highs around 70°F and rarely above 79°F, while the city’s record August heat is far higher but very uncommon[15][13]. Recent forecast products have also clustered around the high-60s to low-70s range for 10 August, with the National Weather Service and AccuWeather both showing highs around 68–71°F in the period leading into the date[4][14][12]. That makes the mid-60s to low-70s bins the natural reference area, and it helps explain why the market has stayed focused on whether the airport clears the low-70s threshold rather than any extreme outcome[1][18].

For traders, the main catalysts are the day’s marine-layer depth, wind direction and whether any late-morning clearing allows stronger heating near KSFO. On the funding side, activity in this kind of weather market is often shallow until deposits arrive through low-friction rails such as Klarna or SEPA, while USDC can add faster settlement and more immediate re-deployment of capital; those flows matter because thin books move quickly when fresh funds hit. The practical signal to watch is not a headline event but the local observation cadence: if the airport stays cloudy or breezy into late morning, the odds of a higher bin compress further, whereas any unexpectedly sunny, weak-wind setup would be the main reason depth shifts into the warmer range[4][5][18].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in San Francisco on August 10? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

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Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.

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