Highest temperature in Paris on May 25?

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Market context

Paris-Le Bourget Airport will record a single highest temperature on 25 May 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. This reading, taken from the official weather station serving France's primary aviation hub, will determine which temperature band resolves as YES. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, giving traders a hard deadline to position before the day's peak heat has fully registered.

Historical May temperatures at Le Bourget show considerable variance. Over the past two decades, late-May highs have ranged from 18°C during cool, wet springs to 29°C during early heatwaves. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting clearer seasonal forecasts or face friction in funding accounts—a common pattern when markets open far from resolution dates. Comparable European airport stations show that spring-to-early-summer transitions carry genuine uncertainty; a single weather system shift can swing daily maxima by 8–10°C. Traders familiar with French meteorology recognise that May 25 sits at the boundary between spring and summer patterns, making historical clustering less predictive than mid-June onwards.

Météo-France publishes extended forecasts roughly 14 days ahead, with meaningful updates arriving in early May. The North Atlantic Oscillation phase and jet stream positioning in late spring will shape whether continental high pressure dominates or Atlantic lows push cool air into northern France. Deposit methods via Klarna and SEPA transfers typically settle within 1–2 business days, allowing traders to fund positions once May forecasts solidify. Book depth will likely increase sharply in the final week before settlement as traders react to 10-day deterministic models.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.