Highest temperature in Paris on June 26?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event hinges on the peak temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport on 26 June 2026, with the market currently pricing a 36°C outcome at 68% despite a crowd-implied 0% probability for the "YES" side of a binary contract. Historical data frames this expectation sharply: the hottest June temperature ever recorded in Paris was 37.6°C on 26 June 1947, a date that matches the settlement day exactly[7]. This specific anniversary suggests traders are weighing a potential recurrence of extreme heat, reinforced by the current western European heatwave that has already pushed temperatures to nearly 41°C in Paris and triggered red alerts across France, the UK, and Spain[2].

Traders should monitor the Met Office and Météo-France daily forecasts for the next 24 hours, as the current heatwave is described as "punishing" with record-breaking averages that could persist into the settlement window[2]. The catalyst for book depth is the influx of funding flows from payment on-ramps like Klarna and SEPA, which are driving liquidity into weather derivatives as depositors seek exposure to extreme climate events[1]. Recent reports confirm France recorded its hottest day ever on Tuesday with a national average of 29.8°C, indicating the thermal pressure is building rapidly and could push the 26 June peak toward the 36–37°C range[5]. Withdrawal rails via USDC and Klarna are facilitating rapid capital entry, deepening the market's sensitivity to these forecast updates.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Paris on June 26? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Klarna UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Klarna UK?

Zero. Polymarket Klarna UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Klarna UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.