Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Klarna UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
59% | 41% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Go to the live market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
59% | 41% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Go to the live market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Go to the live market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Go to the live market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Go to the live market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 32°C | 59% |
| 31°C | 25% |
| 33°C | 17% |
| 30°C | 2% |
| 34°C | 2% |
| 35°C | 1% |
| 28°C or below | 0% |
| 29°C | 0% |
| 36°C | 0% |
| 37°C | 0% |
| 38°C or higher | 0% |
Market context
Paris is set up for a warm afternoon, with forecast highs around **32–34°C** and Météo-France already issuing a yellow warning for extreme heat covering 11–12 August. AccuWeather’s Paris forecast shows **91°F / 33°C** for 11 August, while other local weather pages point to a broadly similar peak, which matters because this market settles on the **highest recorded temperature** at Paris-Le Bourget Airport rather than a summary high/low display. [11][16][2][7]
The crowd’s current **0% YES** implies the market is either mispriced for the likely range or being held back by on-ramp friction rather than conviction alone. That is plausible in a weather market where small differences in the final reading decide the outcome, and where funding speed shapes depth: traders using **Klarna**, **SEPA**, or **USDC** can add liquidity more quickly than those waiting on card settlement or slower bank transfers, so the book often reacts first to accessible rails rather than to the forecast itself. Comparable August heat episodes have produced Paris highs in the mid-30s to near 40°C, including a **39.5°C** August 11 record listed by Météo Paris, so outcomes in the low-30s are not extreme in historical terms. [3][4]
The key catalysts are the morning and early-afternoon updates from meteorological services, plus any change in heat warnings or cloud cover as the day develops. Traders should watch whether revised guidance keeps Paris near the low-30s or nudges the max higher, because this market resolves from the **Daily Observations** table on Weather Underground for Paris-Le Bourget Airport and not from the site’s separate day-high summary, so late sensor updates can still move the settlement print. [17][4][16]
Methodology
This page compares Highest temperature in Paris on August 11? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?
- You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.
- What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?
- Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.
- Can UK traders use Klarna to deposit on Polymarket?
- Polymarket does not natively accept Klarna. To fund a Polymarket account from the UK, you must first purchase USDC via a crypto exchange (Coinbase UK, Kraken) or Revolut, then transfer to a Polygon-compatible wallet. Some third-party on-ramps (MoonPay, Transak) accept UK debit cards and may support Klarna buy-now-pay-later for crypto purchases.
- What payment methods can UK users use for Polymarket?
- UK traders typically use: (1) Coinbase UK or Kraken — buy USDC with GBP debit card or bank transfer; (2) Revolut — buy crypto and send to wallet; (3) MoonPay or Transak — Visa/Mastercard UK debit card directly to USDC on Polygon. Standard GBP-to-USDC conversion fees range from 0.5–2.5%.
- How long do Polymarket withdrawals take for UK users?
- Polymarket withdrawals to your Polygon wallet are instant (on-chain). Converting USDC back to GBP via Coinbase UK or Kraken typically takes 1–3 business days for bank transfer, or near-instant for Revolut. Polygon gas fees are minimal (<$0.01 per transaction).
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