Highest temperature in Paris on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Paris is in late-summer weather that usually tops out in the mid-to-high 20s Celsius, with historical August daily highs clustering around 24–26°C and the month’s long-run records stretching from unusually cool to severe heat. For 1 August specifically, published Paris climate tables show a typical maximum near the low-to-mid 20s, while the August 1 record maximum at Paris reached 35.5°C in 2013, which is well above the range that dominates ordinary years.[4][12][17]

That helps explain why a 0% yes price is more a statement about market structure than about physics: outright zero leaves no room for the tail risk that August occasionally brings to Paris. Recent market pricing on the same event has instead concentrated on the upper-20s Celsius, with 28°C and 29°C treated as the most likely outcomes and 30°C+ priced as a low-probability extension, reflecting the gap between climatology and heatwave scenarios.[3] For book depth, the practical issue is whether fresh deposits can reach the venue quickly enough; cards and open-banking routes such as Klarna can be faster for small top-ups, while SEPA transfers and USDC tend to matter more for larger balances and withdrawal convenience, which affects how much liquidity actually arrives before settlement.

The main catalysts are the afternoon temperature evolution at Paris-Le Bourget and any last-minute forecast revisions from French meteorological services or ensemble models. If cloud cover or a marine-influenced breeze trims the peak, the market is likely to stay pinned below the hotter bins; if the day trends sunnier and calmer than forecast, the odds can migrate sharply towards 28–30°C. Traders will also watch whether payment rails are frictionless during the session, because markets with easy fiat and crypto on-ramps generally deepen faster than those where deposits take hours or withdrawals are awkward, especially close to settlement.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in Paris on August 1? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?

Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.

Which payment methods are supported?

Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.

How fast is SEPA deposit?

SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.

What's the minimum deposit?

10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).

Are payment details protected?

Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.