Highest temperature in NYC on June 26?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event driving this market is the peak heat recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 26 June 2026, specifically the highest temperature in degrees Fahrenheit for that day. Historical data frames the current 0% YES probability as a mispricing; LaGuardia reached 101°F on 26 June 1952, and recent summers have seen lows in the 70s with highs surging into the low 90s during summery conditions [2][8]. While June 2026 averages sit between 77°F and 92°F, the National Weather Service noted a heatwave in early June 2026 with temperatures soaring into the high 80s to low 90s, suggesting the 0% figure ignores the volatility of late-June spikes [2][4].

Traders must monitor the incoming cold front expected Saturday night, which could scatter thunderstorms and cool the air, though warmth is projected to linger into Sunday with temperatures about 10 degrees above normal [2]. The settlement depends entirely on the Wunderground record for KLGA, where the daily high on 26 June 2026 was actually 71°F, significantly below the historic average of 84.2°F [6]. This market’s traction is directly tied to funding flows; as deposit friction via Klarna and SEPA rails decreases, book depth expands, allowing traders to capitalise on the discrepancy between the 71°F actual and the historic 101°F record [1][8]. The withdrawal rails for USDC remain critical for liquidity, as deeper books correlate with smoother on-ramp experiences for institutional players.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Klarna UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Klarna UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Klarna UK?

Zero. Polymarket Klarna UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.