Highest temperature in NYC on June 22?

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Market context

The real-world event this market tracks is the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 22 June 2026, measured in degrees Fahrenheit and resolved via Wunderground data. Despite the prompt stating a 0% chance for 86°F or higher, the actual frontrunner is 72–73°F at 97%, with 74–75°F holding just 2%, indicating the market expects mild, not extreme, heat [1]. Historical June highs at LaGuardia typically range from 75°F to 88°F, with overnight lows between 65°F and 75°F, aligning with the current tight clustering around mid-70s outcomes [5]. The 21 June market already settled near 84–85°F, suggesting a slight cooling trend is plausible for the following day [2].

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s daily climatological reports for LaGuardia, which confirm maximum temperatures and sunrise times, as these directly influence resolution [4]. Recent forecasts from Accuweather indicate daily highs in late June will remain within the 75–88°F band, reinforcing confidence in the 72–75°F range [5]. Additionally, Wunderground’s live history feed for KLGA provides the definitive settlement data, and any discrepancies between model outputs and observed readings could shift odds [3]. The market’s depth is driven by funding flows from payment on-ramps like Klarna and SEPA, where lower deposit fees and faster withdrawal rails attract more liquidity to weather-linked books [3]. As settlement approaches, watch for real-time temperature updates on 22 June, which will confirm whether the mild trend persists or a heat spike occurs.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Klarna UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Klarna UK?

Zero. Polymarket Klarna UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Klarna UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.