Highest temperature in NYC on June 12?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

LaGuardia Airport's weather station will record the day's peak temperature on 12 June 2026, with settlement determined by Wunderground's historical data feed. The market resolves to whichever temperature band captures that single highest reading in Fahrenheit across all daylight and evening hours. Current crowd pricing reflects near-certainty that *some* temperature will be recorded—a logical baseline given the station's continuous operation and the absence of any documented closure risk for that date.

New York's June climate typically ranges between 70°F and 85°F, though heat waves can push readings into the low 90s. Historical precedent matters here: June 2021 saw a peak of 89°F at LaGuardia, whilst June 2022 reached 91°F. The 100% implied probability signals traders view the underlying event—a temperature reading occurring—as certain rather than expressing confidence about which specific range will settle. Deposit and withdrawal mechanics via Klarna or SEPA rails remain unaffected by weather outcomes, meaning liquidity depth depends on whether traders perceive genuine uncertainty in the temperature bands offered rather than the binary fact of measurement itself.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service's 10-day forecast as June 12 approaches, particularly any advisories for Atlantic high-pressure systems or tropical moisture patterns that could elevate readings. Wunderground's historical archive updates daily, confirming data availability for settlement. The market's traction will track whether participants shift positions once forecast confidence improves and temperature probability distributions narrow—a dynamic independent of payment infrastructure but relevant to order-book depth across deposit cohorts.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Klarna UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Klarna UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Klarna UK?

Zero. Polymarket Klarna UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.