Highest temperature in NYC on June 11?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

LaGuardia Airport's peak temperature on 11 June 2026 will be recorded and settled against historical weather data from Wunderground. New York City's early summer climate typically produces highs between 75–85°F in mid-June, though heat waves can push readings into the low 90s. The settlement mechanism relies on a single daily maximum from the airport's official station, eliminating ambiguity around measurement location or time.

Historical June 11th data for New York shows considerable year-to-year variance. The National Weather Service records indicate that whilst some years see mild conditions in the mid-70s, others have recorded peaks near 88°F. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about available temperature ranges or have not yet engaged with this market's specific mechanics. Comparable seasonal markets on US airport temperatures typically see meaningful depth only once traders understand the payout structure and deposit options available through Klarna or direct USDC rails.

Traders monitoring this market should track the National Weather Service's extended forecast as June approaches, particularly any Atlantic ridge patterns that could drive heat northward into the Northeast. Current funding flows into weather prediction markets remain modest relative to political or sports categories, though SEPA transfers and Klarna's instalment payment rails have reduced friction for European participants entering US-based weather books. Market depth will likely increase once the settlement window approaches and traders can verify real-time temperature readings against their positions.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Klarna UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Klarna UK?

Zero. Polymarket Klarna UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Klarna UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.