Highest temperature in NYC on July 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event driving this market is the peak daytime temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 5 July 2026, specifically whether it will breach the 84–85°F range. Historical data shows LaGuardia has experienced extreme heat, including a record midnight temperature of 94°F during a recent heatwave and a daily high of 102°F on a previous Thursday, with July 5, 1999, also marking a significant high-temperature day in the station’s history [1][3][8]. Despite these precedents, the current crowd-implied probability for the 84–85°F range sits at 0% YES, suggesting traders view the forecast as unlikely to reach that threshold, even though similar conditions have occurred [2].

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s Central Park forecast and any updates on heatwave intensity, as these directly influence book depth and settlement outcomes [2]. Recent reports confirm both LaGuardia and Newark hit 104°F today, with heat indexes remaining high and dew points back in the 70s, indicating sustained thermal pressure that could persist into the settlement window [6]. The funding flows driving this market’s traction are tied to payment rails like Klarna and SEPA, where deposit fees and withdrawal speed affect trader participation and liquidity; without seamless on-ramp friction, book depth may remain thin despite the high-stakes weather event [2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in NYC on July 5? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?

You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.

What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?

Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.

How fast is SEPA deposit?

SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.

Can I deposit with a credit card?

Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.

Are payment details protected?

Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.