Highest temperature in NYC on July 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event this market tracks is the peak daytime temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 3 July 2026, measured in degrees Fahrenheit. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% for the highest temperature falling into the expected range, suggesting traders believe the heat dome will push readings significantly higher than anticipated. Historical precedent frames this scepticism: LaGuardia’s all-time record for 3 July is 107°F, set in 1966, while recent forecasts for July 2026 project daily highs between 81°F and 99°F. Just days prior, the airport recorded a historic 94°F at midnight on 3 July, breaking the 2013 record, and daytime highs on 2 July reached 96°F at LaGuardia, indicating the heatwave is already exceeding seasonal norms.

Traders should monitor the continuation of the East Coast heat dome and any official updates from the National Weather Service regarding peak temperatures for 3 July. Recent reporting from FOX Weather confirms LaGuardia hit 94°F at midnight, the highest midnight temperature ever recorded there, with holiday travel surging despite extreme conditions. The catalyst for further book depth lies not just in weather data but in funding flows: as deposit friction eases via Klarna and SEPA rails, and withdrawal rails like USDC become more reliable, capital enters the market faster, deepening liquidity around extreme temperature outcomes. This market’s traction correlates directly with payment infrastructure improvements that reduce on-ramp fees and accelerate capital deployment into high-conviction weather bets.

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Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in NYC on July 3? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?

You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.

What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?

Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.

Which payment methods are supported?

Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.

How fast is SEPA deposit?

SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.

What's the minimum deposit?

10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).