Highest temperature in NYC on July 26?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York’s highest temperature on 26 July will be set by the reading at LaGuardia Airport, and the current crowd view shows a very warm day priced well below the extreme-heat bins. The leading bracket is **84–85°F** at 41%, with **82–83°F** next at 36%, so the market is not treating a breakout above the mid-80s as the base case.[1]

For context, late-July heat in New York often sits in the low-to-mid 80s Fahrenheit, with the hottest part of the day typically falling between late morning and late afternoon. That means the settlement outcome depends less on an overnight spike and more on whether daytime heating, cloud cover and wind allow LaGuardia to run a degree or two above nearby borough readings; the market’s current zero-per-cent yes figure suggests traders are either misreading the contract mechanics or pricing in a very narrow set of temperature bands.[2]

The main catalysts are the same ones that move any airport-temperature market: forecast updates, heat advisories, and any shift in cloud cover or sea-breeze timing before the afternoon peak. For book depth, the funding side matters as much as the forecast itself: deposit friction, card fees, and fast withdrawal rails such as Klarna, SEPA and USDC can determine whether casual users top up quickly enough to tighten spreads. When on-ramp flows are smooth, these weather contracts tend to get more reactive intraday; when they are not, the book can stay thin and mispriced even as the forecast changes.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in NYC on July 26? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?

You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.

Which payment methods are supported?

Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.

What's the minimum deposit?

10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).

How do withdrawals work?

Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).

Are payment details protected?

Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.