Highest temperature in NYC on July 24?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City's peak temperature on 24 July 2026 will be recorded at LaGuardia Airport and settled against historical weather data from Wunderground. The market currently shows 0% implied probability across all temperature bands, indicating either early-stage liquidity or a data-loading issue rather than genuine consensus that no temperature will be recorded. July in New York typically peaks between 85–92°F, with occasional heat waves pushing into the mid-90s. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on the event date, giving traders a narrow window to position before final readings lock in.

Historical July temperatures at LaGuardia show a median high around 84°F, with the 90th percentile reaching approximately 90°F. Extreme heat events—temperatures exceeding 95°F—occur roughly once every five to seven years during summer months. The 2024 summer saw elevated temperatures across the Northeast, though July itself remained within normal ranges. These baselines matter because they anchor reasonable probability distributions; the current flat 0% reading suggests the market lacks sufficient deposit flow or on-ramp activity to establish meaningful price discovery.

Traders should monitor National Weather Service forecasts released in early July 2026, which will provide 10–14 day outlooks for the Northeast. Atlantic hurricane activity and upper-level atmospheric patterns in late July can drive anomalous heat or cooling. Deposit accessibility via Klarna, SEPA transfers, and USDC settlement will determine whether sufficient capital flows into this market to generate competitive odds before the event resolves.

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in NYC on July 24? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?

Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.

How fast is SEPA deposit?

SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.

Can I deposit with a credit card?

Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.

What's the minimum deposit?

10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).

How do withdrawals work?

Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).