Highest temperature in NYC on July 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City's peak temperature on 21 July 2026 will be recorded at LaGuardia Airport and settled against historical data from Weather Underground. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, capturing the full diurnal cycle for that date. Current market pricing reflects deep uncertainty about which temperature band will contain the day's high, with no single range commanding meaningful trader conviction at present.

July temperatures in New York typically range between 75°F and 90°F, though the city regularly experiences peaks above 85°F during summer. Historical records show LaGuardia has recorded highs exceeding 95°F in July on multiple occasions, most recently in 2019 when the airport logged 96°F on 20 July. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting clearer seasonal forecasts or treating this as a calibration event before depositing capital. Book depth will likely improve as June progresses and meteorological models gain confidence in July's weather patterns.

The National Weather Service issues extended forecasts roughly two weeks ahead, with meaningful refinement occurring in the ten-day window. Traders monitoring this market should watch for Atlantic tropical activity, heat dome positioning over the Northeast, and any anomalous jet stream behaviour signalled in late June. Deposit friction remains material for UK-based traders; SEPA transfers and Klarna's payment rails offer lower-cost on-ramps than traditional wire methods, though settlement liquidity depends on whether competing platforms attract similar volumes during the forecast period.

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in NYC on July 21? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?

You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.

What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?

Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.

How fast is SEPA deposit?

SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.

What's the minimum deposit?

10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).

Are payment details protected?

Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.