Highest temperature in NYC on July 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event centres on the peak temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 2 July 2026, a date historically prone to extreme heat in New York City. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% for the highest range, suggesting traders expect temperatures to remain within moderate bands despite the season’s volatility. Historical data frames this expectation: LaGuardia’s all-time high reached 107°F on 3 July 1966, while a nearby record of 101°F was set on 2 July 1966 [5][6]. Recent forecasts for July 2026 indicate daily highs between 81°F and 99°F, with overnight lows rarely dropping below 68°F [2]. This range aligns with the current market stance, as no extreme spike has been forecasted to breach the top threshold.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s extreme heat warning issued for 2 July 2026, which predicts a multi-day event with near-record highs and minimal overnight relief [7]. This warning, coupled with regional records from Newark Airport (103°F in 1901) and LaGuardia (101°F in 1966), underscores the risk of sudden temperature surges [5]. The settlement source, Weather Underground, will provide the definitive high for the day, making real-time updates critical [3]. Funding flows into the market remain tied to payment friction; deposit fees and withdrawal rails via Klarna or SEPA influence book depth, as traders prioritise low-cost on-ramps to position before the warning’s peak impact. Recent volatility in similar climate markets, such as Miami’s July 2 event, shows how heat warnings drive liquidity [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in NYC on July 2? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?

Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.

Which payment methods are supported?

Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.

What's the minimum deposit?

10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).

How do withdrawals work?

Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).

Are payment details protected?

Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.