Highest temperature in NYC on July 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 17 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport in New York City will determine the outcome of this weather prediction market. The settlement hinges on the peak Fahrenheit reading captured by the station before the window closes at 12:00 UTC on 18 July. With the crowd currently assigning a 0% probability to the “YES” outcome for any specific range, the market reflects extreme uncertainty or a lack of liquidity in early trading, despite historical data suggesting mid-to-high 80s are typical for this date.

Historical records from the National Weather Service show that LaGuardia frequently experiences July highs between 84°F and 90°F, with 86–87°F being a common median[2]. Current Polymarket data indicates 86–86°F is the frontrunner at 52%, followed by 88–89°F at 30%, suggesting traders are pricing in a warm but not extreme day[1]. The 0% implied probability likely stems from insufficient on-ramp activity rather than meteorological evidence, as Klarna and SEPA deposit friction may be delaying early position entry.

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground, the official resolution source, which publishes hourly LaGuardia readings[1]. Any sudden shift in cloud cover, humidity, or wind patterns before 12:00 UTC could alter the peak temperature and reshape book depth. Recent funding flows into Polymarket via Klarna have correlated with increased liquidity in weather markets, meaning a surge in USDC or SEPA deposits could quickly correct the current 0% mispricing. Watch for announcements on payment rail expansions that might reduce friction and attract more capital to this event.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in NYC on July 17? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?

Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.

Can I deposit with a credit card?

Yes, Visa and Mastercard. Credit card deposits carry a ~2.5% acquirer surcharge (standard for card payments). Apple Pay and Google Pay run on the same card rails — same surcharge.

What's the minimum deposit?

10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).

How do withdrawals work?

Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).

Are payment details protected?

Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.