Highest temperature in NYC on July 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City will record its peak July 14 temperature at LaGuardia Airport, with the market currently pricing a 0% chance of the event falling into the implied “YES” range, despite a 54% probability assigned to 96–97°F as the frontrunner outcome[1]. This stark divergence suggests the current “YES” condition likely targets an extreme outlier, such as temperatures exceeding 100°F, which contradicts the prevailing consensus that the day will remain within the high-90s range.

Historical data from the National Weather Service shows LaGuardia’s July highs typically cluster between 85°F and 95°F, with record-breaking heatwaves like the July 2026 event pushing temperatures to 97°F across the East Coast[2][3]. That 2026 wave broke records standing for up to 154 years, yet even that extreme did not consistently breach 100°F at KLGA, reinforcing why the market assigns near-zero probability to the current “YES” threshold.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s daily forecast updates for KLGA and Wunderground’s real-time hourly logs as the settlement window closes on 14 July 2026 at 12:00 UTC[2]. Any sudden shift in the 96–97°F frontrunner probability—currently at 54%—would signal fresh funding flows entering the book, potentially altering depth and liquidity for adjacent temperature ranges[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in NYC on July 14? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?

You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.

What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?

Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.

Which payment methods are supported?

Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.

What's the minimum deposit?

10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).

How do withdrawals work?

Identical methods in reverse. SEPA withdrawal: T+1 (standard) or under 10 seconds (SEPA Instant). Klarna withdrawals process via bank-account refund. USDC withdrawal to external wallet: Polygon gas cost (typically $0.01).