Highest temperature in NYC on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 10 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport will determine the outcome of a weather market settling within hours. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for the YES outcome suggests traders expect the peak heat to fall well below the threshold in question, despite a severe heatwave that recently swept the East Coast.

Historical context from July 2026 shows LaGuardia hit 104°F on 3 July, shattering a 60-year record by 3°F, while Central Park reached 100°F the same day [2]. This event broke records across a 500-mile corridor, with midnight temperatures at LaGuardia climbing to 94°F—its highest ever for that time [4][5]. However, July’s typical highs range from 73°F to 91°F, and the extreme spike occurred early in the month, not mid-July [1]. Traders should watch whether the heatwave’s tail end persists or dissipates before settlement, as the 104°F peak is unlikely to repeat on 10 July.

Key catalysts include the National Weather Service’s hourly updates for KLGA and Wunderground’s daily summary, which will confirm the official high [2][10]. Any announcement of a cooling front or shift in wind patterns from the Atlantic could further depress temperatures. With settlement ending at 12:00 UTC on 10 July, the market’s depth will depend on real-time deposit flows via Klarna and SEPA, as traders react to the latest temperature readings before the window closes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in NYC on July 10? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?

You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.

Which payment methods are supported?

Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.

How fast is SEPA deposit?

SEPA Instant: under 10 seconds. SEPA Standard: 1-2 business days. Both accepted fee-free; the internal USDC conversion runs automatically once EUR lands in the platform account.

What's the minimum deposit?

10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).

Are payment details protected?

Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.