Highest temperature in NYC on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 1 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport will determine the outcome of a prediction market where the crowd currently assigns zero probability to the event occurring. Historical data frames this near-certainty: LaGuardia’s all-time peak for early July is 107°F, set on 3 July 1966, while the average high for the month sits around 81–85°F [3]. Recent forecasts for July 2026 suggest daily highs between 81°F and 99°F, with no indication of record-breaking extremes [1]. The 0% YES probability reflects a rational assessment that temperatures will remain within typical ranges, far below the thresholds that would trigger a payout.

Traders should monitor daily weather bulletins from the National Weather Service and real-time updates from Weather Underground, which serves as the official resolution source [2][5]. A key catalyst is the potential for sudden heatwaves, though current models show no such anomalies. Recent news from Yahoo highlights that dangerous, record-breaking heat remains possible in New York and New Jersey, but such events are statistically rare and typically occur later in the month [9]. The market’s depth is driven by funding flows from payment rails like Klarna and SEPA; as deposit fees and withdrawal friction decrease, liquidity increases, tightening the book and reinforcing the crowd’s confidence in the 0% probability.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page compares Highest temperature in NYC on July 1? with a focus on payment rails and deposit friction. Polymarket accepts USDC on Polygon only; Kalshi only ACH/Plaid (US only); Betfair card/SEPA in EU/UK; Manifold no deposit. Polymarket Klarna UK additionally offers Klarna and SOFORT as fiat on-ramps to USDC. Live odds reflect the Polymarket order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement path determines payout latency. Polymarket settles on-chain (USDC, minutes). Broker frontends like Polymarket Klarna UK add Klarna/SOFORT as fiat withdrawal options with T+1 processing. Kalshi: USD via ACH (T+1 to T+3). Betfair: local currency via card/SEPA (T+1 to T+5).

FAQ

How does Klarna deposit work on Polymarket Klarna UK?

You enter the deposit amount in EUR/GBP, choose Klarna as the method, run through Klarna's standard authentication (Pay Later or Direct Bank Transfer), and Polymarket Klarna UK converts internally to USDC for the Polymarket order book. Processing: typically under 30 minutes.

What does SOFORT cost as a deposit method?

Polymarket Klarna UK charges no fees for SOFORT. The only cost is the internal FX spread (typically <1%) on EUR→USDC conversion. SOFORT itself has no end-user fees — the platform absorbs acquirer costs.

Which payment methods are supported?

Klarna (Pay Now / Pay Later), SOFORT, SEPA bank transfer, credit card (Visa/Mastercard), Apple Pay, Google Pay, and direct USDC deposit on Polygon. Availability depends on your jurisdiction.

What's the minimum deposit?

10 EUR / 10 USD equivalent. No upper limit, but deposits over $1,500 lifetime volume trigger a quick KYC flow (typically 5-10 minutes).

Are payment details protected?

Yes. Card and bank details are never stored by Polymarket Klarna UK — they pass directly through PCI-DSS compliant payment service providers (Adyen, Stripe). Polymarket Klarna UK retains only transaction IDs and Klarna reference numbers for reconciliation.